The day I DIDN’T fly to Utah

It’s maybe a little odd to write a post on an aviation blog about not flying, but there has been a lot of talk about safety this year. Mike Patey’s recent impassioned video asks us all to serious consider NOT flying when more than one major risk factor exists (like IFR, night, or ice), and I think we need to have more conversations about good decision making. We don’t necessarily need to celebrate no-fly decisions but I’d much rather discuss with you my rationale for not flying than show up posthumously on blancolirio.

On June 2, 2023, I was hoping to fly into the Skypark Aviation Festival in Woods Cross, UT (KBTF). But early June isn’t quite summer yet in Colorado and Wyoming, and the forecast included low cloud decks and ICE. So I drove to Utah instead. Here’s why:

My only potentially viable route would take me north from Denver to Laramie, WY and then more or less follow I-80 to Salt Lake. Since the cloud decks across central WY were forecast to be quite low, I would need to file IFR. The minimum enroute altitudes (MEAs) across central WY can go as low as 10,000 ft on the Victor airways, but the lowest MEA into the Salt Lake valley is 12,000 ft. As you can see in the profile above, that’s right where moderate to severe icing was forecast to begin.

My #1 rule for flying IFR is “always have an exit strategy.” I looked at Evanston, WY as a possible escape route in the event I encountered ice. Along the route, Rock Springs (KRKS) and Fort Bridger (KFBR) were also viable, having both instrument approaches and weather forecast above approach minimums. However, I could figure on flying at least 10 minutes in ice if I encountered it at all, and then there is the question of how to get a rental car in a small WY town to finish the trip to Utah.

So I elected to drive instead. It was an early morning, but as I got to western WY and began to encounter the weather, I was sure glad I did. Note how the clouds sit right on top of the mountains east of Salt Lake. Once I passed Evanston, if there were indeed moderate icing up there, it would be a race against time.

It’s better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.

Aviation proverb

In my case, I wasn’t even wishing I was the air! Since it was still early summer, normally barren Wyoming was lush green, and I enjoy the wide open spaces and relative quiet afforded by an 8-hr road trip.

I made it to festival in early afternoon thanks to an early morning start. There were lots of families and I met a lot of great people (as one usually does at an aviation festival). I saw a lot of fun machines and the drive back through NW and central Colorado was gorgeous.

I did a lot more flying in the second half of 2023 (more stories coming soon), all of which might not have been possible had I decided to brave the ice.